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The Central Bank working paper: expects China's GDP growth next year 6.8%

on December 16, the peoples Bank site working paper programs issued by the Ma, Liu Bin, such as writing, entitled 2016 China macroeconomic forecasting, (hereinafter "paper") of the working paper.   Proposed 2015 annual real GDP growth is estimated to be 6.9% in 2016, annual real GDP growth is estimated to be 6.8%, and current account surplus to GDP ratio estimated 2016 to 2.8%, slightly less than this year's forecast of 3%.

papers are expected in 2016, nominal growth rate of investment in fixed assets will reach 10.8%, higher than this year's forecast of 10.3%.   Accelerated investment in fixed assets in the name of next year mainly reflected a rise of the price index compared with growth of fixed assets investment, gross fixed capital formation growth slightly slowed down projected 2016 total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 11.1%, than this year's forecast of 10.8% and 0.3% increase mainly reflected price rises in total retail sales growth picked up.

while, papers is expected to 2016 export growth will rebounded to 3.1%, obviously above this year-2.9% of forecast value, main reflect has international needs recovery of expected, also part reflect has price of rebounded; is expected to 2016 imports growth rebound to 2.3%, than this year 14.8% of is expected to drop obviously improved, main reflect has international bulk commodity price in past one years sharply fell zhihou tends to stable of judge.   Based on import and export forecasts, is expected today and tomorrow, a two-year trade surplus to GDP ratio will be 5.5% and 5.3% respectively, the current account surplus to GDP ratio will be 3% and 2.8% respectively.

also expected in 2016, the consumer price index (CPI) baseline forecast was 1.7% per cent, 0.2% higher than the forecast for this year.   CPI up slightly next year said the main reasons for include commodity prices have stopped falling and the lagged effect of monetary policy this year.

in addition, the 2016 PPI decline narrowed to 1.8% per cent, than this year's projected drop is reduced by 3.4%. PPI decline narrowed the main causes include commodity prices have stopped falling, changes in monetary policy and output gaps, etc. This paper argues that macro-policy adjustments to the CPI's influence peaked after about 5 quarters.

 

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